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- Six health, economic, and epidemiology experts have warned Victoria will remain cut-off from the rest of Australia until it eliminates the coronavirus
- They’re also advocating for a stricter six-week lockdown to be introduced in the state, in order to eliminate cases
- They argue stage four restrictions, coupled with mandatory mask-wearing, had a 50-50 chance of eradicating COVID-19
- Meantime, 403 new cases of the virus have been recorded in the last 24 hours in Victoria
- While another five people have died from the virus in Victoria, amongst them is a man aged only in his 50s
Victoria is likely to remain cut off from the rest of Australia for years if it fails to fully eliminate COVID-19, according to a number of experts.
Epidemiologist Tony Blakely told the ABC most states and territories won’t re-open their borders to Victoria, as they don’t want to risk re-introducing COVID-19 back into the community.
His views were backed up in a paper released on Friday, in collaboration with a number of other health, economic, and epidemiology experts.
“It seems highly unlikely that states and territories that have eliminated local transmission will relinquish their status by freely opening borders and engaging with Victoria (and NSW if community transmission remains),” the paper read.
“Australia going forward as two separate systems (six or seven states and territories having eliminated the virus, one or two not) is a significant concern.”
It also warned unless Victoria eliminates the virus, or a vaccine becomes available, the state will remain cut off for potentially years.
Surge in infections
Victoria is in the midst of a massive second wave of infections, bigger than the original peak in late March and early April, with a record484 cases recorded yesterday.
Another 403 new cases of the virus have been recorded in the last 24 hours, while five more people died from the virus. One of the deceased was a man aged only in his 50s.
The latest deaths bring Victoria’s death toll to 49, though sadly that number will likely rise as there are over 200 Victorians already in hospital with the virus, with 40 of those critically ill.
The Victorian Government has already introduced a number of lockdown measures, including a return to stage three stay-at-home orders, in a bid to stop the spread of the virus.
It’s also made wearing a mask mandatory in Melbourne, with only children aged under 12 and those with valid health concern exempt.
Further lockdowns
However, the six health, economic, and epidemiology experts said Victoria should move to stage four lockdown restrictions if it wants to eradicate the coronavirus and re-open the state.
They argue that if stricter restrictions were introduced now, combined with mandatory mask-wearing in public, Victoria has a 50 per cent chance of eliminating COVID-19 in two or three months.
“Undertaking simulation modelling of SARS-CoV-2 policy options is challenging and the uncertainties are still large. Nevertheless, our results lend weight to the proposition that elimination is achievable, and that mandatory wearing of masks can greatly assist its chances,” the paper read.
The Victorian Premier has previously warned he may reintroduce further restrictions, such as closing all schools and additional essential businesses, but no call has been made just yet.
That may change soon though, as more than two weeks have now passed since Victoria reentered lockdown, allowing experts to examine how effective the restrictions have been in stopping the spread of COVID-19.
“We have to understand what the dynamics of transmission are in Victoria at this point in time. It may well be that it’s an awful impost on the economy and on people’s lives with no material benefit if we go to a New Zealand-style lockdown,” said Victoria’s Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton when asked about introducing stage-four lockdowns.
“We have to understand where the transmission’s occurring and what measures will be most effective in reducing it,” he added.
